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Decision changes

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See what changed, why EventEdge moved, and which markets may move next.

Monetary policyBrazil· 14 min ago

Brasília spending drift undermines central bank commitment to forty basis point easing

EventEdge before
58%
EventEdge now
64%
Change
+6 pts
Market price
48¢
Divergence
+16 pts
Confidence
72

What caused it — Copom Monetary Policy Decision and Statement

Watching next — EventEdge estimates a 64% probability of a hawkish hold or smaller cut due to unanchored inflation expectations. The consensus underestimates the central bank’s sensitivity to recent currency depreciation and fiscal expansion.

Biggest belief changes
EventEdge probability moved most since the last recorded read.
New engine disagreements
At least one engine now argues against a moving thesis.
Confidence upgrades
Requires a recorded prior confidence score.

EventEdge does not yet retain a prior confidence score for these analyzes, so no upgrade can be shown honestly.

Confidence downgrades
Requires a recorded prior confidence score.

EventEdge does not yet retain a prior confidence score for these analyzes, so no downgrade can be shown honestly.

Newly qualified trades
Divergence crossed the 12-point qualification threshold.
Trades that lost qualification
Divergence collapsed back below the threshold.
Catalyst just arrived
A linked catalyst is live or has changed state.
What EventEdge sees before the market
EventEdge moved; the market has barely repriced.