Condition being evaluated. A dated catalyst — size lifts from half to full once the resolution date is fixed.
Strategies · system playbooks
Four ways EventEdge waits for the edge.
Each playbook watches different evidence, timing and market behavior. EventEdge activates only when the required conditions align.
2Active
1Armed
1Standing down
24Opportunities watched
Next catalyst
Terminal restart notice window · Within the hour
Crowd Fade
activeWhen a market price runs a long way in a short time and no new primary source arrives to justify it, the move is crowding rather than information. Crowd Fade takes the other side and holds until the evidence catches up or the price returns.
What it is watching now
Prediction-market crowding, coverage velocity and book depth across stories where price has moved more than 12 points without a new primary source.
Prediction-market crowdingCoverage velocityPositioning depth
Condition path
Watching
Evidence building
Confirmation
Qualified
Price has extended while evidence weight stayed flat. The setup qualifies, so EventEdge is holding the fade at half size until the catalyst is dated.
Live management
- Activates when
- Market probability moves more than 12 points without new primary evidence.
- Confirmed by
- Evidence weight stays flat or falls while price extends.
- Invalidated by
- A primary source arrives that justifies the move.
- Risk posture
- Half size until the catalyst is dated.
- Next condition
- A dated catalyst — size lifts from half to full once the resolution date is fixed.
- Last change
- Coverage velocity peaked and began falling while price held. 38 min ago.
- Horizon
- 2 to 10 days
Live opportunities · Crowd Fade · 2 to 10 days
6 watchedStrategy activity · Crowd Fade
Simulated demo events- Coverage velocity rolled overThird-party repeats fell while price held its level.38 min ago
- Opportunity qualifiedDivergence held above threshold for six consecutive reads.2 h ago
- Risk posture set to half sizeNo dated catalyst yet, so policy capped exposure.6 h ago
- New evidence enteredBook depth halved against its 30-day average.Yesterday